The Ferviddy Brief — 13 April 2026
Ghana's PMI returned to expansion in March after two months of contraction — the strongest reading since May 2025. But firms have cut selling prices for 11 straight months and business confidence hit an 11-month low on Gulf crisis fears.
World Bank says Ghana has very little fiscal space to absorb the Gulf shock
The April Africa Economic Update names Ghana among the economies most exposed to Middle East escalation. The country imports 70 percent of its refined fuel, 100 percent of its wheat, and faces a 46 percent month-on-month surge in fertiliser prices. Gold exports at $20 billion are the buffer. BoG Governor Asiama says the prospect of a prolonged conflict keeps him awake. The net balance of risks is inflationary.
This runs directly against Fitch's assessment that Ghana is "relatively insulated." Both are correct about different things. Read the full story →
PIAC questions $205 million TEN FPSO purchase while Explorco owes $561 million
Tullow signed a deal to buy the FPSO Prof. John Evans Atta Mills from MODEC for a declining field producing 16,000 barrels a day. Separately, GNPC subsidiary Explorco has failed to remit $561.6 million in petroleum revenue to the state for 2022-2024. PIAC is considering Supreme Court action. Read →
Ghana's petroleum consumption rose 15 percent to 8.7 billion litres in 2025
Petrol and diesel each grew over 18 percent. Power generation fuel surged 946 percent. Star Oil overtook GOIL as market leader. Local refineries supplied 18 percent of total consumption. The 82 percent import dependency is the structural vulnerability the World Bank and Fitch are both watching.
